The Republic of Ireland find themselves in a bizarre predicament where their hopes of qualifying for Euro 2024 would be boosted if they lose to the Netherlands next month.
While Stephen Kenny’s side can no longer make it to Germany automatically from Group B – having lost five of their six matches so far – they can still make the play-offs.
UEFA’s decision to determine the 12 teams that enter March’s play-offs by their performance in the 2022-23 Nations League – to then decide the final three spots at the finals – offers a glimmer of hope.
But, as has been pointed out on X, Ireland now find themselves in a bonkers situation.
Their 2-0 come defeat to Greece on Friday night ended Ireland’s hopes of finishing in the top two positions in Group B and securing passage to the finals automatically.
The Republic of Ireland could still make the play-offs for Euro 2024 – but they’d be better served losing next month’s qualifier against the Netherlands
The head-scratching permutation could lead to a predicament for Stephen Kenny
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Group leaders France, with six wins from six, have booked their place at Euro 2024. Greece are in second with 12 points, followed by the Netherlands in third with nine points – but a game in hand on Greece.
Ireland then sit in fourth with a meagre three points from their half-dozen games so far – a win which came against minnows Gibraltar.
They are set to play Gibraltar again on Monday night in the Portuguese city of Faro, so are expected to double their points tally and keep play-off hopes flickering.
The 12 play-off teams will be divided into three ‘paths’ of four teams based on their Nations League results in 2022 and 2023.
Leagues A, B and C from the Nations League will each form a path containing the four best-ranked teams who don’t secure an automatic Euros place.
Six teams have already qualified for the Euros – Spain, Portugal, Belgium, France, Scotland, Turkey – and host nation Germany make it seven. Spain, Portugal, Belgium and France are all in League A.
Meanwhile, fellow League A teams England, Wales, Denmark, Hungary, Switzerland, Austria and Czech Republic all currently occupy a top two spot in their qualifying groups.
Netherlands are also in League A and if they beat Greece on Monday night and Ireland in November, they would go into the automatic qualifying spots.
Greece face a more demanding final game – at home to France – than the Netherlands, who play Gibraltar.
Ireland have lost five of their six qualifiers and sit fourth in Group B, with Netherlands third
However, Ireland can still be one of 12 teams into March’s play-offs for the three remaining Euro places. Their chances of getting a play-off berth would be boosted if Netherlands qualify automatically, helped by beating Ireland in Amsterdam next month
A second-placed finish would take Netherlands out of the League A play-off places and further reduce the number of League A countries that haven’t made it automatically.
If League A ends up with fewer than four non-qualifying teams, then one place is given to the best-ranked in League D – which is Estonia – before any remaining places filter down to non-qualified teams in League B.
At the minute, League A’s play-offs would feature Croatia, Netherlands, Poland and Estonia, while League B features Israel, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Finland and Ukraine.
But if Netherlands qualify automatically, Ireland, who ranked 26th in the Nations League, have a better chance of getting into those League B play-offs.
So it’s in Ireland’s interests for Netherlands to finish second, the chances of which are boosted by a Dutch win in Amsterdam on November 18.
The Netherlands won in Dublin last month and would need to win the return next month too
If Ireland were to win that game, it would boost Greece’s chances of snatching second place and would mean Netherlands need a play-off place.
While this scenario depends on various results, it has exposed a loophole in UEFA’s formatting that could make a defeat more beneficial than a victory.
Making the play-offs or not will have a significant bearing on whether Kenny, whose contract expires next month, stays in his post.