Next week’s European second-leg ties could play an enormous role in deciding which the continent’s top leagues receives an extra place in the Champions League next season after a slew of surprise results in this week’s matches.
Liverpool’s 3-0 collapse at Anfield against Serie A side Atalanta not only put a huge dent in their chances of making the Europa League final in Dublin next month, but may have also stymied England’s prospects in gaining the all-important slot.
Similarly, Arsenal were expected to bloody the noses of a beleaguered Bayern Munich at the Emirates on Tuesday night, but were held to a 2-2 draw by the serial German champions ahead of next week’s testing trip to the Allianz.
With the Champions League set to expand to 36 teams and the ‘Swiss League’ format next season, the two additional spots in Europe’s top flight will go to the two countries who finish their international season with the highest coefficient ranking.
Rather than being largely dependent on the result of UEFA’s flagship competition, a country’s team’s performance at any level receives bonus points for success – making Aston Villa’s Europa Conference League run as valuable as their Premier League rivals in the first and second division competitions.
Liverpool were shocked at Anfield by a barnstorming performance from Serie A side Atalanta
Harry Kane helped Bayern Munich hold Arsenal to a draw at the Emirates in their first-leg Champions League meeting
Bayer Leverkusen continued their remarkable unbeaten run in their first-leg against West Ham
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Italy is all but confirmed as one of the countries to receive an additional slot next season, with four teams still in contention across Europe – Atalanta, Roma, and AC Milan in the Europa League, and Fiorentina in the Europa Conference League.
After Thursday night, their coefficient stands at 18.428, with a maximum score of 22.375 still possible.
Boosting their chances, the nation is also guaranteed a team in the semi-final due to the all-Italian quarter-final between Milan and Roma, which the latter leads 1-0 after Thursday meeting at the San Siro.
Serie A could yet see two of its sides in the final four, should Liverpool fail to respond appropriately in Bergamo next Thursday.
Jurgen Klopp’s side were cleaved open by Atalanta’s hungry attack on the road, with former West Ham outcast Gianluca Scamacca reintroducing himself to his former Premier League rivals with two goals either side of half-time before Mario Pasalic’s 80th-minute third.
Despite England having more teams in contention, their chances could yet be hampered by the progress of German teams, the Premier League now behind the Bundesliga on coefficient scores as things stand.
England have a score of 16.750 and Germany are on 16.785 – with things made all the more dramatic by the fact that two of the ties which could clinch the points are between clubs from the two nations.
An Italian side in the Europa League is guaranteed thanks to the quarter-final meeting between AC Milan and Roma
Manchester City continue to look impressive defending their title after keeping the score level against Real Madrid at the Bernabeu
West Ham look less and less likely to shatter Xabi Alonso’s miraculous unbeaten run with Bayer Leverkusen after David Moyes side were hit with two late goals to hand the hosts a 2-0 lead ahead of the second-leg.
While Borussia Dortmund’s chances of a place in the semi-finals suffered a knock after their 2-1 away defeat to Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich have received a boost and Leverkusen look equally, if not more, confident, despite their looming trip to the London Stadium.
But Villa’s 2-1 first-leg victory against Lille could play a large role in keeping England’s chances afloat, leaving Unai Emery’s men the task of finishing things in next week’s second-leg at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Should Man City and Arsenal both progress England could have their chances boosted of an English semi-final in the Champions League – but on opposite sides of the draw, Dortmund and Bayern have the opportunity to play an all-Germany final, which would further bolster their efforts.
While the results could go down to the wire, should Arsenal and West Ham overcome their German opponents, England’s chances of securing the second spot would look very strong indeed.
Spain and France are all but out of contention in the race for the additional place, with scores of 15.062 and 14.750 respectively.
Statisicians Opta remain positive about England’s hopes of a strong second-leg showing, giving the nation a 57.8 per cent chance of making the top two.
Germany, by contrast, has a 41.8 per cent chance as things stand.
Aston Villa’s Europa Conference League run could prove vital to England’s chances of the spot
England remains the slim favourite for the second spot but the clubs have work to do ahead of next week’s meetings
If the Premier League were to be granted the additional spot next season, eight teams could take part across Europe as part of their 2024-25 campaign.
Clubs who finish in spots one to five in the table would be awarded places in the Champions League, with sixth place and the winners of the FA Cup entered into the Europa League.
The Carabao Cup winners – Liverpool – would take the remaining place in the Europa Conference League.
But if the cup winners finish inside the top six, clubs who finish seventh and eighth in the table could also be rewarded with a spot in Europe.