Rob Page is preparing for a night in Cardiff that could make or break his time as Wales manager.
Beat Poland on Tuesday and Page will achieve something no Wales boss has delivered — qualification for consecutive major tournaments. Though Page led the team at Euro 2020, Ryan Giggs was in charge throughout the qualifying campaign.
Lose, and suddenly Page’s future is up for debate again. Because when you strip away the Red Wall romance and renditions of Yma o Hyd, the plain fact is that Wales would have failed to qualify for Euro 2024 despite all the cards falling in their favour.
Despite trailing in third behind Turkey and Croatia in their group, Wales’ Nations League performance gave them a shot at the play-offs — where they promptly landed two home ties. With Finland despatched, Wales take on a Polish side who are superior to the Finns but still beatable.
Though Wojciech Szczesny, Piotr Zielinski and Robert Lewandowski are better than anything Wales have to offer, the rest of the XI is unspectacular and in Cardiff, Wales should beat them.
Rob Page faces a make-or-break night with Wales as they host Poland on Tuesday evening
If Wales win, they reach another major tournament, and enter the Euro 2024 group stage
While Poland have Robert Lewandowski, Wales would expect to beat them across the board
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Poland do not travel well, and their 1-0 win at the Cardiff City Stadium in September 2022 was one of only two away from home since October 2020. The other was against the Faroe Islands.
It may sound harsh, but defeat would represent failure for Page. Page’s relationship with Welsh FA chief executive Noel Mooney has been strained ever since Mooney hinted last autumn that he could make a change if Wales missed out on Euro 2024.
Page is well liked by the players but the 49-year-old — who has two years to run on his contract — has also had the rub of the green at crucial moments. He inherited the side in the post-Giggs era and they were extremely lucky to squeeze past Ukraine in the play-off for Qatar 2022 — and were awful at the finals. Then a third-place finish was rewarded with two home play-offs and if Wales do reach Germany, they will fancy their chances of making the last 16.
The winners on Tuesday will go into Group D, alongside France, the Netherlands and Austria. Victory over Austria might be enough to take Wales into the knockout stages as one of the best third-placed teams.
Wales supporters will have been pleased to hear Page so bullish. ‘We are in a healthy position because we’ve got everybody playing regularly for their clubs,’ said Page. ‘The gap in the World Cup play-offs in 2022 [between the Austria semi-final in March and Ukraine final in June] suited us because we had senior players who weren’t playing club football, in Aaron [Ramsey], in Gareth [Bale]. That gap helped us. If it had been four or five days later, we might have struggled a bit.
‘Now we’re in a different position because we’ve got a younger squad, a fitter squad, we’ve got players who are playing regularly. Poland will be a tough game and we respect what they’re all about.
‘However, we know if we bring our A-game like we did against Croatia [who Wales beat 2-1 last October] and tonight, the result will take care of itself. We know what we have to do. We’ve had a taste of major tournaments and we quite like it.
‘We’ve been there, picked the hotel and got the training ground. We just need one more result to get across the line.’
It has been interesting to watch Wales in the post-Bale era, and with Aaron Ramsey often unavailable — though the Cardiff midfielder was on the bench on Thursday.
David Brooks says the Wales team has ‘plenty of firepower’, which helped them see off Finland
It is interesting to watch Wales post-Gareth Bale, but his absence has allowed others to flourish
Bale is arguably the best player in the history of Welsh football but his absence has allowed others to flourish. Now Page can develop a system to favour the collective.
The wobbly area of the team is the defence. Goalkeeper Danny Ward’s only competitive football is for his country and centre back Chris Mepham looks badly out of form. If he struggled against Finland’s Teemu Pukki, what happens when he has to face Lewandowski?
Wales will bank on the front three of David Brooks, Brennan Johnson and Harry Wilson to repeat their impressive displays against Finland.
‘It’s a team with plenty of firepower,’ said Brooks. ‘Dan James and Kieffer Moore have been in good form but were both on the bench against Finland. There are goals throughout the team and whoever plays will be a threat.’