Ten games. Three teams. One point. Rarely has a Premier League title race been tighter than this as Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City battle it out for glory.
The last time only a point separated the top three so late in the season it was 10 years ago and Steven Gerrard slipped and City snatched the crown by two points.
This is the fifth time it’s happened in the history of the 20-team Premier League.
Will current king Pep Guardiola make it four titles in a row? Will his protege Mikel Arteta end Arsenal’s 20-year wait to be champions again? Or will Jurgen Klopp secure the perfect curtain call on his sensational time at Liverpool before he takes his final bow?
Mail Sport dives into the numbers to discover who will get over the line and who will fall short.
Premier League title race is shaping up to be one of the closest ever with ten games remaining
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ARSENAL
ATTACK
Arsenal, remember, had to sign a striker. They couldn’t just rely on Gabriel Jesus or new signing Kai Havertz because he was rubbish. Yet here they are, highest scorers in the division. It’s not only that which makes Arsenal so dangerous. It’s that they score all the goals. Arsenal have the most goals from set plays (19), the most headed goals (16), the most players to score at least five (7) and have the closest difference between goals with their left (25) and right (26) foot. They’ll get you somehow.
DEFENCE
It’s not the attack that’s been key. Arsenal have the best defence — by a mile. They face the fewest shots on target (2.5) per game, keep the most clean sheets (11), have conceded the fewest goals (24) and their Expected Goals conceded is eight fewer than anyone else. Last season, they only conceded three fewer than Brentford. Having William Saliba fit all season and Declan Rice in front of him has been crucial.
Arsenal have recruited well and thanks to the likes of Declan Rice have been solid both defensively and going forward
MANAGER
Mikel Arteta’s record against his title rivals is the biggest marker of how far he’s come. He lost 10 of his first 13 games against Liverpool and City, including his first six against mentor Pep Guardiola. This season, Arsenal have not lost a league game to any Big Six club.
VERDICT
Arsenal are the best team. They’ve scored the most goals and conceded the fewest. Their Expected Goal difference per game is the best in the division when, for the last seven seasons, it’s been Man City. Not anymore.
There is a but, though. When the table is so tight, there’s no room for slip ups. Arsenal’s run-in is the toughest, especially away from home. They still have to go to City, Tottenham and Manchester United. All their away games are against teams in the top 10. If they get it done with those away fixtures, they sure as hell deserve it.
BOOKMAKERS ODDS
5/2 third favourites
But the Gunners must conquer a seriously challenging run-in if they are to secure a first title in two decades
LIVERPOOL
ATTACK
Two dangerous things happened at once: Mo Salah returned from injury and Darwin Nunez found out where the net is. Since Boxing Day, only two players (min 250mins) can boast an xG per PL game greater than one: Darwin Nunez and Mo Salah. And, like all great teams, they never know when they are beaten.
No side has scored more goals in the last 15 minutes of games (24) which have seen them earn 13 points from losing positions in the latter stages of games. Liverpool have trailed in 13 games this season. They’ve lost twice.
Jurgen Klopp has put his side on course for a fairytale ending in his final season as Liverpool boss
DEFENCE
Like Arsenal, you get so distracted by the attack, it’s easy to miss the solid foundations it is built upon. Liverpool have conceded 26 goals. At this stage last season, they’d let in 33. So much is down to Virgil van Dijk’s return to his imperious best. Not a single error leading to a shot or goals, and dribbled past only twice.
MANAGER
Klopp’s not just stirred the soul of the Kop with his departure, he has the magic touch with his tactical tweaks too: no side has more goals and assists by subs than Liverpool this season (22).
The return of Mo Salah and Darwin Nunez’s form in front of goal will be vital for the Reds
VERDICT
For some, it’s a fairytale written in the stars. Certain forces of fate, like these, are too strong to overcome. A title in Klopp’s final season in front of the fans is simply meant to be. For those less romantic, Liverpool have two of the most potent attackers in the league, the best centre-back in the world and the easiest run-in.
BOOKMAKERS ODDS: 11/5 second favourites
MANCHESTER CITY
ATTACK
City have Erling Haaland. That helps. Yet we are seeing faults in his circuitry. He’s failed to score in seven of his last 10 PL games for the first time. City are seven goals down from last season.
When Haaland accounts for 30 per cent of your goals, the most except for Solanke at Bournemouth and Bowen at West Ham, that can be a problem. Last season, though, it was closer to 40 per cent so at least Pep is finding goals from other players like Phil Foden.
Despite still topping the scoring charts Erling Haaland is undergoing a rough patch at a bad time
DEFENCE
Likewise, the Pep defensive machine is spluttering. City are shipping a goal a game for the first time since Guardiola’s first season. They are facing more shots per game (8.3) than ever under him. They’ve dropped 10 points from winning positions this season and five of them have come in the last 15 minutes of games. For once, they don’t feel quite so untouchable.
MANAGER
It’s incredible how he does it. Year after year Guardiola instils a relentless desire to win again and again. When it comes to the crunch, that mentality counts for a lot.
VERDICT
For all the concerns about the cracks, City remain just a point behind. Their only Big Six away trip left is Spurs. Their final few home games are against teams they can crush. They have the know-how. That’s why they are still bookies’ favourites. The Arsenal game is huge.
But City still have a wealth of elite talent to rely upon and have an undeniable winners’ mentality
BOOKMAKERS ODDS
11/10 favourites
THE MAN WHO WON IT: CHRIS SUTTON
I Remember we were eight points clear of Man United with six games to go — but they kept putting the pressure on.
We didn’t have great experience aside from Kenny Dalglish as manager. We were all in our early to mid-20s and I do think our form towards the end of the season — after we had been blowing teams away in the first half of it — dipped because maybe they wisened up to us.
It became about resilience and just finding a way to win and we did that. We beat Everton, a really aggressive side who were in a relegation battle, and that was always going to be a tough game there.
Then we went to QPR, I scored and we beat them, and we pretty much thought that would be it. The next game was at Leeds and they equalised in the last minute. Then we were at home against Man City and they were in the relegation zone.
But we got nervy. They ended up beating us — and we had the best home form in the division that season. Nobody saw that coming.
With four games to go it was about sticking to our beliefs. We beat Crystal Palace next, Kevin Gallacher scoring, and it was comfortable enough. Then we lost to West Ham away, I lost Marc Rieper on a corner and he scored. Now it’s two games to go and really tight.
We weren’t the prettiest team but effective. We used the wide players, we could be direct and we played to our strengths with Alan Shearer and myself up top. We were a pragmatic, organised team and our mindset or tactics didn’t change. I don’t think we ever stopped believing we could win it.
When you lose a game it’s important to bounce back and we did that — twice. It was about staying ahead as we were being hunted down. Kenny was the constant for us. He was the guy who had to hold his nerve and he never got too excited or too down. He was always pretty pragmatic and always giving us confidence.
He backed us to the hilt. We had a wobble and that’s when we needed him. It was about finding a way to win when not at your best, and we did that. This season, Manchester City haven’t been at their best either.
Liverpool have found a way to win when injury-ravaged and Arsenal have hit their stride after a slow start. It’s a sprint to the finish
Chris Sutton scored 15 times as Blackburn relied on Sir Kenny Dalglish’s experience to secure Premier League glory
THE MAN WHO CAME CLOSE: DANNY MURPHY
I don’t think we truly believed we could win it. We said the right things, we were confident but we lacked that real belief in our hearts to get over the line.
We never felt under that much pressure. There wasn’t much expectation around us. We hadn’t been in the situation before so didn’t chat too much about winning it. We just got on with it.
The pressure of being in a title race wasn’t as intense as it is now. There wasn’t the relentless coverage. There wasn’t the social media, all the podcasts, the constant chat analysing every step of the way. There weren’t the same outside influences. It would be much harder to switch off from it now.
I still loved watching the other games and looking at the fixture lists. I was still engrossed in it all. I loved watching Arsenal and Manchester United play and hoping they would lose.
Danny Murphy was an integral part of Gerard Houllier’s Liverpool side in the 2001-02 campaign
Of course we wanted to win it but we also felt, if we didn’t, that we were still moving in the right direction. If we didn’t win it this season, we’d just win it next season.
We had to deal with losing our manager Gerard Houllier to ill health for a chunk of the season too. Phil Thompson never gets enough credit for the job he did during that spell to keep us on track.
We started the season poorly with defeats by Bolton and Aston Villa and, in the end, that cost us. We also felt aggrieved only getting a point at Arsenal in January but we still went toe-to-toe with them even if we were playing catch-up.
What killed us was losing at Tottenham with three games to go. We blew it at White Hart Lane. We knew coming off the pitch that we messed it up. We had a bad day and Spurs played well.
The dressing room was filled with disappointment. It was so quiet. I remember the feeling of acceptance. It was done. It was gone.
A poor spell around Christmas saw the Reds ultimately finish second, seven points behind Arsenal
If we’d got a result there we could have put real pressure on Arsenal who had to go to Old Trafford. A different result there and it might have gone to the final day.
As it was, the reality kicked in that the dream was over. The same could happen this season. It’s so tight. There are going to be moments when Arsenal, Liverpool or Man City could feel they have blown it. And like us, it could be Spurs who have a huge say.
They still have all three to play and have shown already they can cause them problems. They’ve taken points off all three this season. Unlike for us, though, the pressure is on.