Is Pep Guardiola or Alex Ferguson the greatest manager as Man City close on Treble?

Pep Guardiola has now won 11 league titles in 14 seasons of top-flight management with Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Manchester City.

It is a staggering achievement and testament to the Spaniard’s ability to adapt, innovate, keep things fresh and ensure the fire that burns within his players remains stoked.

Arsenal may have led the Premier League for large swathes of the season but when it mattered, City were the only ones with the class of champions.

They have now won five of the last six English titles and three in succession, matching the three-peats of Manchester United between 1999-2001 and 2007-2009.

Their coronation over the weekend also came with the promise of much more. A Treble that also includes the FA Cup and the Champions League now looks a distinct possibility.

If they beat United at Wembley on June 3 and Inter Milan in Istanbul a week later, they will emulate the historic achievement of Sir Alex Ferguson’s United greats in the 1998-99 campaign.

As Guardiola’s City continue to match the high points of United during Ferguson’s 27-year dynasty at Old Trafford, the debate will rage on as to who is the better manger.

It was a topic of conversation for the Sky Sports pundits as City beat Chelsea on Sunday before lifting the trophy.

Jamie Redknapp argued Guardiola was the greatest of all-time because of the way he has changed football more generally. But Micah Richards said the sheer quantity of trophies Ferguson won means that he remains ahead for now.

We take a closer examination at the evidence for both.

TROPHIES WON

Guardiola’s CV continues to look ever more impressive. He now has five Premier League title wins with City, added to the three he won with Barcelona and three at Bayern.

At Barca, he also claimed two Copa del Rey wins and, for the sake of thoroughness, three Spanish Super Cups. With Bayern, he won the German Cup twice.

At City, we can add seven other domestic trophies – one FA Cup, four League Cups and two Community Shields.

In terms of international competition, Guardiola won the Champions League twice with Barcelona, adding two UEFA Super Cups and two FIFA Club World Cups.

He also won the Super Cup and the Club World Cup at Bayern, having inherited a Champions League-winning side in 2013.

European success has, for the time being, eluded him at the Etihad Stadium of course.

So that amounts to 33 trophies in 15 years, or 14 years of management if you take out his year’s ‘sabbatical’ between the Barcelona and Bayern jobs.

Ferguson first entered the dug-out at Scottish club East Stirlingshire in June 1974 – when he was only 32 years of age.

That would be the start of a managerial career that spanned almost 40 years until his retirement after nearly 27 years as United boss in 2013.

His first taste of success came when St Mirren won the Scottish First Division in 1977, going up to the Premier Division.

At Aberdeen, Fergie won three Premier Division titles in the 1980s, the Scottish Cup four times in five seasons between 1982 and 1986 and the Scottish League Cup in 1986.

The Dons famously won the European Cup Winners’ Cup in 1983, beating Real Madrid in Gothenburg, and the Super Cup a few months later.

Taking over at Man United in 1986, Ferguson led an unprecedented period of success spanning over two decades.

That includes 13 Premier League titles, five FA Cups, four League Cups, 10 Charity/Community Shields, two Champions Leagues, the Cup Winners’ Cup, the UEFA Super Cup, Intercontinental Cup and the FIFA Club World Cup.

Overall, that means Ferguson won 49 trophies in 39 years as a manager.

So, while Guardiola still has plenty of catching up to do to match Ferguson’s enormous haul of silverware, he still has plenty of years left in which to achieve it.

Indeed, if 52-year-old Pep was to continue winning things at the current rate, which will all depend on where his next assignment lies after City, he’ll far surpass Fergie’s total.

DOUBLES AND TREBLES

Let’s not forget that Guardiola has already won the Treble. In fact, he did it in his first season of senior management with Barcelona in 2008-09.

This wonderful team featuring Lionel Messi, Samuel Eto’o, Thierry Henry, Xavi and Andres Iniesta won LaLiga by nine points from Real Madrid, lifted the Copa del Rey and then beat Ferguson’s United 2-0 in the Champions League final.

So it isn’t as though it’s something to have eluded Guardiola.

But given the current comparison is the English football Treble of Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League, which fans in this country will always say is trickier, then Guardiola could emulate Ferguson’s historic achievement of 1999.

There will be plenty of comparisons between those two teams to come, no doubt, but what is clear so far is that City are significantly more in control of their destiny than United were during their 1999 high-wire act, which included a number of sliding doors moments.

For example, while City were steamrollering Real Madrid 4-0 in the Champions League semi-final, United had to come from two goals down to beat Juventus and make the final.

Guardiola’s City have also won a domestic Treble of Premier League, FA Cup and EFL Cup in 2018-19.

Ferguson’s United didn’t manage that, but they did win league and FA Cup Doubles in 1993-94 and 1995-96.

RECORD BREAKERS

What has been especially noteworthy about Guardiola’s City teams of recent seasons is just how relentless they are and this is reflected in some of the records they have set.

For instance, in 2017-18, they set the Premier League best for points won in a season (100) and biggest winning margin (19 points).

They also racked up 98 points in winning the 2018-19 title and 93 last season. The highest a Ferguson United team got in a 38-game Premier League season was 91 in 1999-2000.

City have twice achieved 32 wins in a league campaign (out of 38 played), whereas the most United won in a season under Fergie was 28.

Goals scored can be another indicator of a team’s dominance in the Premier League. The most United have ever scored was 97 in 1999-2000 and usually it was in the 70s or 80s somewhere.

City racked up a Premier League record 106 in 2017-18, also surpassed a century with 102 two seasons later (in finishing second to Liverpool), and have also hit 99 and 95 in other seasons. They have 93 and counting in this campaign.

What it shows is that Guardiola’s City have further raised the bar in English football.

More often than not, you will need to accumulate well over 90 points to win the title ahead of them whereas during Ferguson’s time, far fewer were needed.

SEEING OFF RIVALS

The most remarkable aspect of Ferguson’s long reign at Old Trafford was how he ensured his United teams were regularly restocked and replenished with new players to see off the next emerging threat.

In the early Premier League years, there were challenges from Blackburn Rovers and Newcastle United – the former winning the title, the latter not.

Then came the more sustained threat from Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal every year between 1997 and about 2005. This remains the greatest Premier League rivalry, given there was absolutely no love lost between players or managers at the time.

After Arsenal won the Double in 1998, United responded with the Treble in 1999 and ultimately Ferguson was able to build up another dominant team from 2007 onwards whereas Wenger’s Arsenal declined.

That meant tackling the challenge of Chelsea, backed by Roman Abramovich’s billions, which they did. After the Blues won back-to-back titles in 2005 and 2006, United won three in a row as well as beating them in the 2008 Champions League final.

Had Ferguson been a younger man, he would surely have relished getting stuck into Abu Dhabi-backed City, the ‘noisy neighbours’, and we’ll never know if United could have sustained their success under him post-2013.

Since then, the balance has well and truly shifted towards City. Guardiola has only really had to fend off Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool, who have landed a few blows but haven’t been able to topple City.

New threats may emerge if Guardiola stays for a few more years but City certainly look well-equipped to see them off.

Liverpool have pushed them right to the wire in two seasons, as well as bossing their 2019-20 title-winning campaign, but have fallen back in others – including the current one.

For all Arsenal’s gains, there isn’t an obvious candidate at the moment who you’d say for certain can take City on directly for the next 4-5 years.

LEGACY

Redknapp made the point that now only has Guardiola been hugely successful, he has changed the way football is played at all levels.

‘I think he’s the greatest ever and why I say that is that he has changed football,’ the Sky Sports pundit said.

‘There have been some great managers. You go through history, Arrigo Sacchi, what he did with AC Milan, Johan Cruyff… Managers who have changed things forever, and he is certainly one of them.

‘When you go and watch football now, be it grassroots or whatever, everybody plays the Pep way. People play out from then back when we thought it was impossible.

‘He has changed peoples’ perceptions of the game. You have midfield players and defenders going into different areas, playing out, splitting defences, and for me he is the greatest ever.’

Redknapp certainly makes a good point. You do see most teams building out from the back – or at least trying to – nowadays because of the imprint left by Guardiola’s teams.

Tiki-taka is the modern way but Guardiola’s genius is in the way he continues to evolve, making sure nothing gets stale or his teams become unpredictable.

The conversion of John Stones from a centre-back to a ball-playing midfielder this season is just one way opponents have been kept guessing.

With Erling Haaland, Jack Grealish, Kevin De Bruyne and Co, City have the class to overwhelm the majority of their opponents. But it’s the manager’s tactical nous and invention that keeps them head and shoulders above everyone else.

Ferguson’s legacy wouldn’t necessarily be a revolutionary tactical one but it’s towering in many other ways.

The mountain of silverware won at Aberdeen and United speaks for itself, not to mention how this was sustained over so many years. It is no mean feat to maintain such high standards for so long.

Ferguson’s gift to the game of football and to the art of management includes a fierce determination to overcome long odds, the never-say-die spirit for which his United teams in particular were renowned for, and the careful man-management that nurtured the loyalty of talented footballers.

It isn’t a coincidence that dozens of Ferguson’s former players have gone on to forge their own managerial careers.

One of his great qualities was creating that ‘bunker mentality’ where it felt as if everyone and everything in the world was against you, therefore eeking out an extra percent of effort.

Ferguson’s incredible work ethic over so many years also set the standard for others, as did his philosophy to win at all costs.

As he once remarked: ‘I’ve never played for a draw in my life.’

CONCLUSIONS

Guardiola still has some way to go to match Ferguson’s trophy collection but, at the current rate, he will not only match it but go some way beyond.

He is 52 and Ferguson retired when he was 71, so there’s plenty of time yet.

If City win the Treble, Guardiola will achieve another giant tick in this debate because he has matched something Ferguson did which many believed would never be repeated.

His City team will also have won the three trophies in a far more dominant manner than Fergie’s United did, albeit without the same levels of film-script drama and jeopardy.

Guardiola still needs to prove he can sustain such a high level of success over as long a period as Ferguson did, whether with City or at other clubs. You wouldn’t bet against that.

One caveat is that Guardiola has always coached the biggest teams with the best players and plenty of financial backing. Plenty would love to know how he’d fare with a League Two side.

The Spaniard has already secured his legacy when it comes to tactical innovation and, as Redknapp said, he will sit alongside Sacchi, Cruyff and other coaches who have changed the football landscape.

His City side have already raised the bar considerably in English football, to the point where a rival would have to be nigh-on perfect to finish above them in the table.

The Premier League’s investigation into City’s alleged financial fair play breaches, which overlaps the start of Guardiola’s tenure, could yet stain all of his accomplishments in England.

But there’s no question Guardiola’s career legacy is on a trajectory to exceed Ferguson and everyone else who ever managed a football team.